President Abraham Lincoln made a career out of making friends out of enemies. Lincoln was fond of saying that the best way to destroy an enemy was to make a friend of him.
Frederick Kagan and others at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) make a career of making enemies out of lifelong friends. Invading a MNNA (Major Non Nato Ally) is the height of stupidity. This is a tsunami.
Kagan's outbursts may be a direct result of the increasing frustration at the failures in Iraq and the route of NATO forces in Afghanistan which spell the imminent fall of Kabul. The combined might of RAW-and Khad is trying to portray "instability" in Pakistan as an excuse to invade another Muslim country and consecrate the Crusade that the fanatics talk about.
This self-full-filling prophecy has grave consequences for South Asia and the Middle East. Incursions may ignite a fire that may not be containable. Do we want to deal with cardboard caricatures, or do we deal with reality?
One forgets that this is the fourth largest country in the world, nuclear armed and in certain regions of the country the entire population is armed. Does sanity suggest that we antagonize 160 million people? For what and for whom? For getting OBL? One of the worst case scenarios is if Americans are taken hostages and then attempts are made to rescue them. This would be embarrassing for the USA and Pakistan. The risk vs. reward may not be worth it.
Then there is always the possibility of a catastrophe where many Pakistani civilians die as a result of a strike. An accident could occur. If the Pakistanis are not aware of a strike missiles could be launched which could start a regional war. Pakistan and India are nuclear armed. In such a case, all bets are off, and the result would be horrible for the planet.
Pakistan has a 10 division well trained and well equipped army, one of the most professional armies in the world. Most of the officers were trained in the UK, USA, and Australia etc. The army has a centralized control with intense loyalty to the officer corps. More than 500,00 soldiers are in reserve, and like Israel all Pakistani high-schoolers (11th and 12th grades) are trained in basic two year military training called NCC (National Cadet Corp).The army is armed to the teeth, with local arms production M-16, Kalashnikovs, heavy artillery and now airplanes (knockoff of F-16s called JF-17 Thunder). They also have one of the best missile programs in the world, better than that of India.
“The Regime” consists of the army support, an elected National Assembly and Senate with representation of all the political parties including a heavy and intense presence of the MMA, PML and PPP opposition.
Now to eliminate all this would require a full scale invasion. 400,000 American soldiers and mercenaries (contractors) could not do it in Iraq, which has one fifth of the population and was sanctioned for ten years.
Now let us talk about invading Pakistan. Whose army is going to do it? One will need at least two million soldiers to occupy the country partially, and no one in 5000 years has been able to hold it.
Before the country is attacked many unnamed capitals and cities may go up in smoke, the Gulf of Hormuz would be blocked (ending supply of oil to the world), the Suez Canal would be choked, and many oilfields would be radio active for the next ten thousand years. This would mean the end of life as we know it. MAD (mutually assured destruction is the wave of the future).Any takers?
Pakistan may also decide to re-realign itself with Russia and China and leave the USA high and dry. Peace is the only way. Let us build bridges of harmony and rethink the strategy of war and “taking out nukes”. Loose Talk from the likes of Kagan reverberates into a tsunami in Islamabad and may take out all moderate forces in Pakistan