How to build a relationship with the Pakistanis

پاکستاان لیجر | PAKISTAN LEDGER | پاکستاني کھاتا |Sept. 23rd, 08 | Moin Ansari | معین آنصآرّی |



Former President Pervez Musharraf once described it as a delicate art of "tightrope walking"; the problem for Zardari is that the rope is fraying and the winds are growing fierce. According to a June poll conducted by the International Republican Institute, 71% of Pakistanis oppose Pakistan's cooperation with the U.S. against Islamist militants. For critics of the policy, it has always been "an American war" forced on an unwilling country, and they blame it for bringing the Afghan conflict over the border and encouraging a wave of terrorism in Pakistan's major cities. Time Magazine September 23rd, 2008

Terror has raised its ugly head in Pakistan again. There are two kinds of thinking on this matter, "The blame Pakistan first crowd", and "Blame everything on America crowd". It is pedantic to execute an exegetical examination of of the terror data in order to try to list, define, and describe the roots of the origins of terror in Pakistan--then and now. Pakistan has faced terror in two time periods, during the 80s and in the post 911 era.

The Marriott devastation has traumatised Islamabad as never before, despite having seen violence and terrorism with regularity over the last few years – especially since last year. Perhaps it was the widespread damage far beyond the Marriott, which in itself was as tragic as it was horrific, or perhaps it was the live television coverage that took the horror to everyone’s home. Anger, rage, condemnation, fear and helplessness are certainly some of the emotions that have been brought to the fore.Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 2008. The writer is a defence analyst. Email: callstr@hotmail.com

a) Terror against Pakistan in the 80s: The worst incidents of terror were during the 80s during the US sponsored war against the USSR that was carried on in Afghanistan. General (Retd) Hamid Gul lists many incidents of terror that were directly tied to RAW, KGB and Khad. The attacks on Pakistan were never carried out is a simple manner. There was much thought put into the location of the bombs so as to cause maximum harm in terms of blood and gore but also in terms of psychological and long term damage. The attacks carried on Pakistan were placed in Sunni and Shia places of worship. This had the dual affect of exacting blood, but also was an attempt to create religious strife among Pakistanis. Another RAW tactic was to create ethnic strife among the citizens of Pakistan. By using terror against one ethnic group, the Indians want to create racial divisions in Pakistan. This has worked for for them in many areas of the world. This is a favorite of the Indian terror tactics which they have perfected in Sri Lanka, Tibet, Sikkim, Bhutan and Bangladesh and Pakistan.

"I think it is essential for Pakistan to be a willing partner in any strategy we have to deal with the threat coming out of the western part of Pakistan and the eastern part of Afghanistan," September 23rd, 2008: US Defense Secretary Robert Gates at hearing of Senate Armed Services Committee.

b) Post 911 terror: After the Afghan war was over, there was a lull in the terror attacks. Listening to the purile cowering of Mr. Karzai, one wonders about his maturity level.His own record on managing his fiefdom is execrable The current spate of attacks against Pakistan became more severe when the tide of the Afghan war began turning against the occupation forces who went there to liberate the country. There is now an exponential increase in terror in Pakistan after the completion of and operation of the 4 Indian Consulates and 13 "Information Centers" in Afghanistan.

If we can officially create space between the US and ourselves, and there can be no covert assent to US access in Pakistan as was the case with the previous government – something that was consistently criticised in these columns – at least the nation will rally around the state and allow it to make an effective beginning to a long term strategy to deal with extremism and violence. Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 2008

Shireen Mazari is right when she says that terrorism in Pakistan has many different origins. It is pedagogical to note that most of the terror against Pakistan started after 911. She has criticized the PPPPs pusillanimous response to threats from across the border. We have expanded Dr. Mazari's list to six broad categories of the origins of terror in Pakistan.

1) Al-Qaeda: This ephemeral group is the "catch all" for all activities that are carried on against the US and its proxies. This group has its origins outside Pakistan and is funded outside Pakistan. According to the CIA reports it attacks US targets. Many do not believe that the group exists as a cohesive unit and some conspiracy theorists believe that the groups persona has been manufactured and embellished to malign and discredit institutions and countries.

..a strategy has to first recognise that terrorism in Pakistan has a number of differing origins: there is the most violent one that is rooted in distorted religious extremism and is linked to Al Qaeda and seeks indiscriminate destruction for impact. This is not about winning hearts and minds so much as creating fear in hearts and minds. Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 200



2) Balauch "Sub-Nationalists": This group of Pakistani malcontents had their hay day during the Cold War when it was funded, aided and abetted by the masters in the Soviet Union and India. It has its origins outside Pakistan and is funded outside Pakistan. Recently the BLA has been resurrected with different masters. The Government of Balauchistan has been established in Tel Aviv and many Balauch remnants are supported by New Delhi.

But there is also the political sub-national violence and terrorism, such as in Balochistan, which is also abetted by external forces but has indigenous political roots, and discriminates in its targeting. This attempts to win hearts and minds and so targets are selective – security forces and strategic installations – and is susceptible to a political solution. Clearly an overarching strategy would need to make these distinctions.Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 2008



3) Kabul miscreants and Northern Alliance and Pro-Indian Karzaiites: These groups have their origins outside Pakistan and is funded from sources outside Pakistan. This groups is meant to avenge the impotence and inefficiency of the government organs of Kabul. The US may tolerat these elements but Pakistan considers them sworn enemies.



4) Criminal elements and Drug Lords: There are criminal elements on both sides of the border that are taking advantage of the situation and often use the name of other groups. The hostage taking of the Pakistani ambassador to Kabul is a case in point. The Ambassador was taken hostage by thugs, and criminals and later sold to a different groups. He may have finally ended up with the Taliban.



5) The 38 groups fighting the US Occupation forces in Afghanistan: "Taliban, Hizb e Islami, Hizb ul Mujihideen and others. These groups are busy fighting the occupation forces in Afghanistan and have not attacked Pakistan.





The [September 23rd, 2008: Robert Gates at hearing of Senate Armed Services Committee.]defense secretary acknowledged that the Pakistanis did not see all insurgent groups as enemies. Pakistan, he said, has had a long-term relationship with the group led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb e-Islami party, and another by Jalaludin Haqqani, a former Taliban commander.

"I think in many respects they don't see the Taliban as their enemy," September 23rd, 2008: US Defense Secretary Robert Gates at hearing of Senate Armed Services Committee.

6) Tehrik e Taliban and Fidayeen: This terror group is purely a terror group with almost no agenda expect to destabilize Pakistan. Without a doubt this terror group has its origins outside Pakistan and is funded outside Pakistan. This group is a well funded and diabolically oiled machine that has mounted extremely satanically planned attacks on the Pakistan army as well as Pakistani hospitals and civilian targets of little value to any armed group. The ruthlessness of the group can be judged by the fact that it has taken hundreds of innocent lives.

Over a year ago, in these columns I had written about strange American personnel going in the direction of Warsak and now we have a disturbing story of US marines with questionable baggage, which was not screened and one has to wonder why, on the fourth floor of the Marriott – where the fire first started. Were their some weapons or incendiary devices which the Marines had brought in? The time has come for the government to come clean on this and stop such covert US activities for the future. As for US "advisers" or "trainers" coming in, our people and leaders should recall that that is how the US began its military invasion in South Vietnam – advisers followed by troops! Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 2008




7) Domestic Malcontents: There is no doubt that there are some elements in Pakistan who want to make trouble for the Pakistani government which they see as a proxy of the US.However these miscreants neither have the wherewithal nor can they survive without the oxygen that is provided to them from outside sources.

In the context of FATA, any strategy would have to include, alongside a delinkage with the US, a genuine and immediate political and economic outreach to the people of FATA and other violence affected areas of Pakhtunkhwa, under the umbrella of military protection. People who do not support extremist militancy must be given protection and positive incentives to remain steadfast while the fence sitters must be shown benefits of coming over to the state’s side and costs for not doing so. Protect the locals so that they can shun the extremists without fear of retribution. Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 2008



Pakistan may identify terrorists against Pakistan in countries outside Pakistan and request the US help. This is on a case by case basis.



8) US attacks on Pakistan: Ostensibly the attacks on Pakistan are made on the pretexts of hot pursuit.



"I will say to you, though, we will do what is necessary to protect our troops, but it is every important to engage the Pakistani government.

"And I think the threat that they are seeing, threats to themselves, creates the opportunity where we can work together and there is no necessity for us to take any actions to protect our troops along those lines," Gates at hearing of Senate Armed Services Committee

Most of the drone bombings have been against the innocent civilians. Even if the drone bombings were considered successful, the impact of the bombings has been negative. In killing a few terrorists the bombs have created more anti-Americanism than ever before. The US is losing the war in Afghanistan. So the policy of bombing targets in Pakistan has not worked. It has not only backfired, it has created a blowback for Pakistan as well as prop-Americans in Pakistan.

And, while we are seeking to fight our own terrorists, let us not forget that we also confront an equally menacing threat from the US which has already infiltrated our country at multiple levels. That is why winning over our own people and exposing the many-headed enemy has to be the starting point. Otherwise Pakistan is in danger of being reduced to just so much collateral damage! Shireen Mazari. The News Sept 24th, 2008

MILITANTS WITHIN PAKISTANI TERRITORY: Pakistan will deal with all militants within Pakistani territory. No help is required from the US.




APPENDIX A:

Pakistan: just so much collateral damage? By Shireen M Mazari 9/24/2008

The Marriott devastation has traumatised Islamabad as never before, despite having seen violence and terrorism with regularity over the last few years – especially since last year. Perhaps it was the widespread damage far beyond the Marriott, which in itself was as tragic as it was horrific, or perhaps it was the live television coverage that took the horror to everyone’s home. Anger, rage, condemnation, fear and helplessness are certainly some of the emotions that have been brought to the fore.

Anger and rage over the act itself and the timing – the month of Ramazan and just when Muslims were ending their fast; anger and rage also at those who have the gall to call themselves Muslims and then kill their fellow Muslims, indeed their fellow human beings, through such barbaric acts of violence; anger and rage at the total failure of the security apparatus of the state, despite the hotel being in the Red Zone of high security; anger and rage at the continuing disconnect within the government, with even the prime minister and interior adviser at cross purposes in their pronouncements – even now the disconnect continues with the interior minister declaring that the official Iftar party was initially to be held at the Marriot while the hotel staff has categorically stated that there was no such arrangement. And, there is anger over the inadequacy of emergency response equipment and procedures, despite the capital having gone through an earthquake and earlier acts of terror. Some of us had always critiqued the CDA’s elitist focus under Lashari and once again Islamabad has paid a heavy price for this.


There is condemnation for the state leaving its citizenry at the mercy of the terrorists – both from within and from outside. The total focus of the state on the ruling elite was evident in the immediate aftermath of the Marriott attack when representatives of the official party came on television and pronounced that the security arrangements had saved the lives of the ruling elite safely ensconced in the Prime Minister House – what insensitivity at the devastation of the rest of Pakistan and its citizenry. Moreover if we are to believe the national security adviser that the official iftar party venue was changed at the last minute, did this justify a security lapse in terms of protecting the Marriott since the government seemed to have known of an impending attack? Certainly no condemnation can be too strong for the state looking merely to its own and leaving the rest of the population as cannon fodder for the terrorists.


The fear and helplessness have been growing within ordinary Pakistanis since our state went into the US war in Afghanistan. Fear that this war, if fought on US terms would extol a heavy price from Pakistan and helplessness in the face of our state’s non-responsiveness to the voice of its own people. As the US war has drawn Pakistan into a deathly vortex of a new home-grown terror of suicide bombings and Iraq-imported Improvised Exploding Devices (IEDs), more space is being created for extremists and terrorists from within us – as the state has yet to project credibility over its own war against terrorism.


If we in Islamabad feel all these intense emotions in the aftermath of the Marriott attack, can we not for one second step back and reflect on how the people of the FATA region have been feeling when confronted with death and destruction at the hands of foreign military power with their own state a seemingly helpless bystander? Is it any wonder that impressionable young youth have offered their lives in the face of the death and destruction of their families and homes – especially when they see their state do nothing? Can we not see that it takes little for the evil preachers of hate and nihilism to convert such people to taking their own lives along with many innocent others? Is there to be no rage, anger, condemnation, fear and helplessness amongst these local people when they see innocent families wiped out by US drones, missiles and now ground troops, as their own state does nothing? And, is it any wonder, that in the settled areas like Swat violence and militancy have flourished because the hapless locals are convinced the state offers no security against the hate teachings of the extremists?


The misguided and fearful people of these extremist-infested areas are the human shields for the terrorists and this phenomenon has now spread as the internally displaced people (IDPs) have moved far beyond their homes. Leaving aside our emotions, a reality check will show how our state has to create the space between itself and the US if it is to mobilise support for its own war against terrorists and extremists within the country. Yes, we do have a war on our hands but it is different from the US war which has its own agenda, and it has to be fought differently – within an overarching political strategy and economic and military tactical prongs. Effectiveness of such a war will depend on establishing credibility for it and that cannot come unless we create space from the US.


Over a year ago, in these columns I had written about strange American personnel going in the direction of Warsak and now we have a disturbing story of US marines with questionable baggage, which was not screened and one has to wonder why, on the fourth floor of the Marriott – where the fire first started. Were their some weapons or incendiary devices which the Marines had brought in? The time has come for the government to come clean on this and stop such covert US activities for the future. As for US "advisers" or "trainers" coming in, our people and leaders should recall that that is how the US began its military invasion in South Vietnam – advisers followed by troops!


If we can officially create space between the US and ourselves, and there can be no covert assent to US access in Pakistan as was the case with the previous government – something that was consistently criticised in these columns – at least the nation will rally around the state and allow it to make an effective beginning to a long term strategy to deal with extremism and violence. Such a strategy has to first recognise that terrorism in Pakistan has a number of differing origins: there is the most violent one that is rooted in distorted religious extremism and is linked to Al Qaeda and seeks indiscriminate destruction for impact. This is not about winning hearts and minds so much as creating fear in hearts and minds. But there is also the political sub-national violence and terrorism, such as in Balochistan, which is also abetted by external forces but has indigenous political roots, and discriminates in its targeting. This attempts to win hearts and minds and so targets are selective – security forces and strategic installations – and is susceptible to a political solution. Clearly an overarching strategy would need to make these distinctions.


In the context of FATA, any strategy would have to include, alongside a delinkage with the US, a genuine and immediate political and economic outreach to the people of FATA and other violence affected areas of Pakhtunkhwa, under the umbrella of military protection. People who do not support extremist militancy must be given protection and positive incentives to remain steadfast while the fence sitters must be shown benefits of coming over to the state’s side and costs for not doing so. Protect the locals so that they can shun the extremists without fear of retribution.


Beyond FATA, there is a need to seriously implement the much-touted but not enforced policy of madressah reform. In this context, all foreign funding for any form of educational or charitable project needs to be transparent and public. Similarly, local donations to schools and charities should be made public.


And, while we are seeking to fight our own terrorists, let us not forget that we also confront an equally menacing threat from the US which has already infiltrated our country at multiple levels. That is why winning over our own people and exposing the many-headed enemy has to be the starting point. Otherwise Pakistan is in danger of being reduced to just so much collateral damage!


The writer is a defence analyst. Email: callstr@hotmail.com