Sunday, January 2, 2011

Is the PPP party over

Flag of the Pakistan Peoples Party
The PPP led minority coalition government is now hanging by a thin thread

Premier Gilani will be left with the support of only 160 members — 12 less than the required number to maintain his position as leader of the National Assembly in the 342-member lower house.

  • The PPP  has only 125 seats of its own in a house of 342.

  • The MQMs decision to sit on the opposition benches in parliament, leaves PM Yousuf Raza Gilani as Leader of the House without a majority.

  • JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman has asked President Asif Zardari to replace Mr Gilani with another PPP leader.

  • The Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly and PML-N Chaudhry Nisar has declared that his party would not support PPPs ‘corrupt’ set-up.

  • Mr. Zardari is camped out in Karachi hopeful that the  MQM would come back to the coalition.

  • The PML-Q, with over 50 seats in the Lower House, can help the government  stay afloat even if all other allies of the PPP leave the treasury benches and decide to sit in the opposition.

  • The MQM sees itself as a King Maker. Today they can surely exact the price from the PPP.

The PPP led coalition government is now hanging by a thin thread. The PPP did not acquiesce to the demands of the MQM for the removal of the Sindh Home Minister Dr Zulfiqar Mirza and the Urban Sindhis wanted the interior ministry of Sindh. Mr. Zardari camped out in Karachi was unable to give in to the demands of the MQM. The MQM's Damocles sword is hanging over the government of Mr. Gilani.

The MQM’s decision puts moral pressure upon the Prime Minister to seek a vote of confidence. At present the Premier has no justification continue as the Prime Minister.

The government's missteps have created a crisis for Mr. Zardari and the PPP. The coalition government finds itself in a precarious situation. As a minority government it can last on the goodwill of the opposition. Henceforth Mr Gilani will not be able to weather the storm of a No-Confidence motion. In fact as of Monday the opposition will have votes than the government in power.

The downfall of the compliant government in Islamabad will have regional and international repercussions.  A coalition led by the PMLN, PMLQ will inherently be more nationalistic and would not tolerate drone bombings and open access to the CIA in Pakistan.

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