Tuesday, November 24, 2009

India’s Cold War strategy guarantees hot war—Nuclear annihilation

First there was the stupid statement by Chief General Deepak Kapoor of the Indian Armed Forces. This sort of claptrap places Indian-Pakistan relations by years. Then there was the expected response to the provocation.

Ironically the original architect of Bharat’s Cold War strategy Mr. Stephen Cohen has recently stated that strategically the US and India are moving apart. This shrewd insight into the foreign policy realities of America have made the Delhi analysts more nervous about American intentions. The Bharati Prime Minister in Washington was bitterly complaining about Pakistan—all Obama could do was provide cheese to the Manmohan whine. Some in the Delhi establishment have not recognized the new realities in Washington. China and Pakistan are in and Bharat is out.

President Obama politely rebuffed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

"Pakistan has an enormously important role in the security of the region by making sure that the extremist organizations that often operate out of its territories are dealt with effectively," Obama said.
"And we've seen some progress,"
he said

NEW DELHI (APP) – Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor said on Monday the possibility of a limited war 'under a nuclear overhang' is still very much a reality in South Asia.

South Asia along with West Asia has emerged as “one of the epicentres of conflict and instability,” he said and added the situation would “further worsen since there was neither any political or diplomatic unity nor any common ground to build a consensus to fight this new war”, General Kapoor said at a seminar on “Changing Nature of Conflict: Trends and Responses”.

“Territorial disputes, provocation by proxy wars, religious fundamentalism, radical extremism, ethnic tensions and socio-economic disparities are the hallmark of South Asia,” he said.
Gen Kapoor said sub-conventional conflicts may force nations to undertake interventions on “purely humanitarian grounds if the diaspora is under threat, sovereignty of nations being questioned such as attacks on missions abroad and national assets and foreign soil being used constantly for attack by state and non-state actors”.
Speaking on the occasion, Indian Defence Minister AK Antony said the threat of nuclear weapons falling into wrong hands was an “area of serious concern” and its consequences would be “unimaginable”.
Meanwhile, India’s Eastern Command Chief Air Marshal SK Bhan said in Shillong on Monday induction of new aircraft and upgradation of Advanced Landing Grounds had nothing to do with China.
“India has no intention of going to war with any country. But if the thrust is on us, we will respond,” he said while responding to a question in a press conference.

He said the Eastern Command would be modernised by 2015, which would reduce dependence on the western sector.

If provocation is what General Kapoor was looking for, he surely did get a befitting and vociferous response from Islamabad. General Kapoor’s timing couldn't have been worse. The statement contradicted what his boss was trying to play victim in front of the US President.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan News: The foreign office has reacted strongly on Indian statement about nuclear war saying that India is preparing for limited war.

In a statement issued by the foreign office, Abdul Basit said India was working on a specific strategy. The statement of Indian Army Chief regarding the limited nuclear war is the clear signal of Indian ambitions of regional domination and nuclear aggression. The FO spokesman urged international community to take notice of this statement and India’s long-term resolves. Abdul Basit said Pakistan was fully capable of protecting its national sovereignty and borders.

Islamabad: Pakistan on Tuesday claimed the Indian Army Chief's comments about the possibility of a limited war under a nuclear overhang were a reflection of the "hegemonic thrust" of India's nuclear doctrine.

Indian Army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor's remarks "only reaffirm India's dangerous and offensive nuclear doctrine," Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit said in a statement.

Basit was responding to a question about Kapoor's comment at a seminar in New Delhi yesterday that "a limited war under a nuclear overhang is still very much a reality in the Indian subcontinent".
The spokesman alleged that India has for "long been working on the so-called Cold Start strategy and preparing for a limited war against Pakistan".

Kapoor's statement "confirms the hegemonic thrust of India's nuclear doctrine," he claimed.
The international community "should take notice of Gen Kapoor's remarks and India's long-term intentions", Basit said. "Major powers have a particular responsibility in this regard. They should refrain from steps that in any manner negatively affect the strategic balance in South Asia," he added. PTI

The Cold war strategy could possibly have worked in the early stages of the nuclear development. However, Pakistan is too far advanced, with indigenous fighters (not the control of America), UAVs, and of course short range, medium range and long term missiles. A massive movement of Bharati troops to a staging ground near the Pakistani border would be a dead giveaway. Any movement of Bharati troops would also be seen as a threat by China which would quickly mobilize in a defensive posture near the Bharati border. Pakistan has a standing army of more than half a million men. It also has reserves of about 250,000 men. They are mostly on the Eastern front watching the enemies every move. Any slight change in topography would alert the Pakistanis. Any lightening attack by Bharat would be detected by the Paksat, AWACS, radars, and the planes in the sky.

In actual battle, the Bharatis are not guaranteed success. The Stephen Cohen “Cold Start Strategy” refers to Bharat quickly crossing the border, and seizing Lahore, or Sialkot, or get deep into Sindh trying to bifurcate the country and then dictating conditions.According to the Stephen Cohen doctrine adopted by Bharat, the strategy is based on the theory that all this would happen before the Nuclear threshold is reached. Serious anomalies exist in the doctrine. For example Pakistan could throw small nuclear devices at the advancing troops, which would devastate the advance. Or Pakistan could shower Delhi and Mumbai in a limited strike, perhaps below Bharat’s nuclear threshold. The US conducted hundreds of such possibilities and simulated war games between Pakistan and Bharat—all of them ended in full scale Nuclear war.

Even talk of war between Nuclear armed neighbors is insanity at its worst. This type of thinking shows a total detachment from reality. The Russians and the Americans never contemplated it, but came close to the end of world several times. Bharat has nethir shown maturity or any sense of decency ever since she bacame a nuclear power---with many claiming a doubtful nuclear power (since the tests at Pokhran were a fizzle)

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